Over 2.5 tips, every bet on the record
Every Over 2.5 goals tip BearBet has posted since 30 July 2026, settled in public: 207 bets, +37.1u, a yield of 8.2% at average odds of 2.25. Losing runs included.
We win 50.2% of these bets and need about 44.5% to break even at these odds. The worst drawdown so far was 28.8 units, between 31 July 2026 and 8 August 2026, and the longest losing run was 7 bets in a row.
How we pick them
The model turns each team's expected goals into a full spread of likely scorelines, and from that the chance of three or more goals. We bet when the price beats that chance by enough, and stake more when the gap is bigger. Stakes are 1 to 3 units, where a unit is 1% of your bankroll.
Month by month
| Month | Bets | Win rate | Profit | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 6 | 17% | -9.5u | -67.9% |
| August 2026 | 82 | 46% | +3.0u | +1.7% |
| September 2026 | 37 | 59% | +21.2u | +26.5% |
| October 2026 | 78 | 53% | +23.2u | +13.6% |
| November 2026 | 4 | 50% | -0.8u | -9.5% |
2 of 5 months lost money. The worst was July 2026: 6 bets, -9.5u.
Competitions with the most bets
| Competition | Bets | Profit | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) | 11 | +10.0u | +38.3% |
The latest 20 Over 2.5 bets
| Date | Match | Stake | Odds | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Danubio W vs San Jacinto Keguay W Campeonato Femenino | 2u | 1.57 | W | +1.14u |
| 01/11 | Mirandés II vs Almazán Tercera - Group 8 | 2u | 2.35 | L | -2.00u |
| 01/11 | Rivers United vs Enugu Rangers Npfl | 2u | 2.40 | L | -2.00u |
| 01/11 | Kamjani vs Teteks Second League | 2u | 2.05 | W | +2.10u |
| 31/10 | Titanes de Querétaro vs La Piedad Querétaro Liga TDP | 3u | 2.00 | W | +3.00u |
| 31/10 | Alianza Universidad vs Universidad San Martín Segunda Division | 3u | 2.38 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | Lens W vs Fleury 91 W Premiere Ligue Women | 2u | 1.97 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Tarbes vs Chauray CFA Group B | 2u | 2.35 | W | +2.70u |
| 31/10 | Vizela U19 vs Vitória Guimarães U19 Júniores U19 | 2u | 1.80 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | MC Alger vs USM Khenchela Ligue 1 | 2u | 2.20 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Chumphon United vs Samui United Thai League 3 - South | 2u | 2.00 | L | -2.00u |
| 30/10 | Allerheiligen vs FC Gleisdorf Regionalliga: Sud | 3u | 1.70 | L | -3.00u |
| 30/10 | FC Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula First League | 3u | 1.82 | W | +2.46u |
| 30/10 | Juárez U21 vs Querétaro U21 Liga MX U21 | 2u | 2.07 | W | +2.14u |
| 30/10 | Kahraba Ismailia vs Masar Second Division A | 2u | 2.78 | W | +3.56u |
| 29/10 | Jubbah vs Al Arabi Saudi Division 2 | 2u | 2.20 | L | -2.00u |
| 29/10 | Al Shoalah vs Al-Washm Division 2 | 2u | 2.15 | W | +2.30u |
| 28/10 | Genoa vs Juventus Serie A | 2u | 2.58 | L | -2.00u |
| 28/10 | Marine FC vs Al-Hilal Omdurman Rwanda Premier League | 3u | 2.20 | W | +3.60u |
| 27/10 | Planalto EC W vs FluGoiania W Goiano Women | 3u | 1.66 | W | +1.98u |
Every other Over 2.5 bet is in the full track record and the monthly results.
Questions people ask
What does Over 2.5 goals mean?
The bet wins if the match has three goals or more, whoever scores them. 2-1, 3-0 and 2-2 all win; 1-1 and 2-0 lose.
Are BearBet's Over 2.5 tips profitable?
Over the whole record, yes: 207 bets, +37.1u, a yield of 8.2%. 2 of 5 months lost money, the worst being July 2026 at -9.5u.
What win rate do Over 2.5 tips need to break even?
At average odds of 2.25 you need to win about 44.5% of bets to break even. We have won 50.2%.
How many Over 2.5 tips do you post?
About 15 a week on average since 30 July 2026. The number varies with the fixture list: we only bet when the price is long enough.
Other strategies
Selected tips go out free on our Telegram channel. VIP members get every bet the model finds, Over 2.5 included, before kick-off. How BearBet works.