Home win tips, every bet on the record
Every home win tip BearBet has posted since 25 February 2026, settled in public: 320 bets, +109.7u, a yield of 16.8% at average odds of 2.99. Losing runs included.
We win 39.1% of these bets and need about 33.4% to break even at these odds. The worst drawdown so far was 33.0 units, between 24 October 2026 and 31 October 2026, and the longest losing run was 11 bets in a row.
How we pick them
The model estimates each side's chance of winning from bookmaker odds and its own team ratings. We back the home side when the price on offer is longer than that chance implies. Stakes are 1 to 3 units, where a unit is 1% of your bankroll.
Month by month
| Month | Bets | Win rate | Profit | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | 5 | 40% | +2.7u | +26.5% |
| March 2026 | 54 | 43% | +10.3u | +10.0% |
| April 2026 | 48 | 48% | +20.9u | +20.9% |
| May 2026 | 48 | 42% | +24.6u | +23.9% |
| June 2026 | 23 | 22% | -14.9u | -33.8% |
| July 2026 | 38 | 47% | +70.5u | +102.2% |
| August 2026 | 37 | 38% | +14.0u | +22.6% |
| September 2026 | 18 | 33% | -1.2u | -3.8% |
| October 2026 | 45 | 29% | -16.0u | -13.6% |
| November 2026 | 4 | 25% | -1.2u | -10.0% |
4 of 10 months lost money. The worst was October 2026: 45 bets, -16.0u.
The latest 20 Home win bets
| Date | Match | Stake | Odds | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Juventud Torremolinos CF vs CDA Águilas FC Primera Federación | 3u | 2.75 | L | -3.00u |
| 01/11 | Brian Lignano Calcio vs Campodarsego Serie D, Girone C | 3u | 3.40 | L | -3.00u |
| 01/11 | Melhus vs Byasen Toppfotball 3rd Division, Group 2 | 3u | 2.20 | L | -3.00u |
| 01/11 | Colomiers U19 vs Gazélec Ajaccio U19 Championnat National U19 | 3u | 3.60 | W | +7.80u |
| 31/10 | Celta Fortuna vs Córdoba LaLiga 2 | 3u | 3.33 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | Merida U19 vs CF Trival Valderas Alcorcon U19 División de Honor Juvenil | 3u | 2.80 | W | +5.40u |
| 31/10 | Oxford City vs South Shields National League North | 3u | 2.30 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | Hull City vs Ipswich Town Premier League [E0] | 3u | 2.70 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | Knockbreda vs Dergview Premier Intermediate League | 3u | 4.00 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | SD Videm vs NK Ormož 3. SNL | 3u | 2.50 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | Prague Raptors W vs Slovan Liberec W First League Women | 3u | 4.50 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | Ružomberok W vs Trenčín W I Liga Women | 1u | 2.70 | W | +1.70u |
| 30/10 | KS Iskierka Szczecin vs MKS Kotwica Kołobrzeg IV. Liga - Zachodniopomorska | 3u | 2.90 | L | -3.00u |
| 30/10 | Donau Klagenfurt vs Treibach Regionalliga: Sud | 3u | 4.00 | W | +9.00u |
| 29/10 | Korona II Kielce vs Wiślanie Master Way Skawina Betclic 3. Liga, Group 4 | 3u | 2.70 | L | -3.00u |
| 27/10 | ACD Juan Pablo II vs Sport Huancayo Liga 1 Te Apuesto | 3u | 2.55 | W | +4.65u |
| 27/10 | Plymouth Parkway vs Gloucester City Southern Football League, Premier Division South | 3u | 2.20 | W | +3.60u |
| 27/10 | Spalding United vs Brackley Town Enterprise National League North | 1u | 2.38 | L | -1.00u |
| 26/10 | Vålerenga IF II vs KFUM Oslo II 3rd Division, Group 1 | 3u | 6.00 | L | -3.00u |
| 25/10 | Bra vs Derthona Serie D, Girone A | 3u | 2.30 | L | -3.00u |
Every other Home win bet is in the full track record and the monthly results.
Questions people ask
What is a home win bet?
A bet on the home side to win the match in 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A draw or an away win loses.
Are BearBet's Home win tips profitable?
Over the whole record, yes: 320 bets, +109.7u, a yield of 16.8%. 4 of 10 months lost money, the worst being October 2026 at -16.0u.
What win rate do Home win tips need to break even?
At average odds of 2.99 you need to win about 33.4% of bets to break even. We have won 39.1%.
How many Home win tips do you post?
About 9 a week on average since 25 February 2026. The number varies with the fixture list: we only bet when the price is long enough.
Other strategies
Selected tips go out free on our Telegram channel. VIP members get every bet the model finds, Home win included, before kick-off. How BearBet works.