Under 2.5 tips, every bet on the record
Every Under 2.5 goals tip BearBet has posted since 24 February 2026, settled in public: 565 bets, +93.1u, a yield of 10.4% at average odds of 2.50. Losing runs included.
We win 43.4% of these bets and need about 40.1% to break even at these odds. The worst drawdown so far was 77.3 units, between 10 April 2026 and 19 May 2026, and the longest losing run was 9 bets in a row.
How we pick them
The model turns each team's expected goals into a spread of likely scorelines, and from that the chance of two goals or fewer. We bet when the price on offer is longer than that chance implies. Stakes are 1 to 3 units, where a unit is 1% of your bankroll.
Month by month
| Month | Bets | Win rate | Profit | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | 15 | 53% | +13.5u | +56.4% |
| March 2026 | 90 | 49% | +44.0u | +29.9% |
| April 2026 | 100 | 37% | -18.8u | -12.4% |
| May 2026 | 129 | 42% | -25.6u | -13.5% |
| June 2026 | 32 | 44% | +5.2u | +10.5% |
| July 2026 | 31 | 45% | +1.5u | +3.3% |
| August 2026 | 57 | 53% | +42.8u | +48.1% |
| September 2026 | 47 | 47% | +22.1u | +32.5% |
| October 2026 | 58 | 34% | +6.4u | +5.2% |
| November 2026 | 6 | 33% | +2.0u | +14.3% |
2 of 10 months lost money. The worst was May 2026: 129 bets, -25.6u.
Competitions with the most bets
| Competition | Bets | Profit | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B (Italy) | 23 | -17.0u | -51.5% |
| Europa Conference League (Europe) | 18 | +4.7u | +16.2% |
| Copa Sudamericana (South America) | 18 | +11.8u | +37.0% |
| Championship (England) | 17 | -5.6u | -28.0% |
| League One (England) | 16 | -3.7u | -20.8% |
| Super Liga (Serbia) | 16 | -0.1u | -0.5% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 15 | +1.8u | +8.8% |
| Major League Soccer (United States) | 15 | -7.8u | -41.3% |
| Serie A (Brazil) | 10 | +3.2u | +23.0% |
| Ligue 2 (France) | 10 | -5.5u | -34.2% |
The latest 20 Under 2.5 bets
| Date | Match | Stake | Odds | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City Current W NWSL | 2u | 2.75 | W | +3.50u |
| 01/11 | Puebla FC vs FC Juárez Liga MX, Women, Apertura | 3u | 2.95 | L | -3.00u |
| 01/11 | Palermo vs Vicenza Serie B | 2u | 2.60 | L | -2.00u |
| 01/11 | Calvo Sotelo vs Guadalajara Segunda Division RFEF: Group 5 | 2u | 2.38 | L | -2.00u |
| 01/11 | Drøbak/Frogn vs Ørn-Horten 3rd Division, Group 6 | 3u | 3.50 | W | +7.50u |
| 01/11 | Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale J1 League | 2u | 2.45 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Güemes vs Temperley Primera Nacional | 3u | 2.30 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | FC Montlouis vs Chambly CFA Group A | 2u | 2.15 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Udinese vs Roma Serie A | 2u | 2.60 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Lannion vs Rennes II National 3: Group C | 2u | 2.62 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Mačva Šabac vs Crvena Zvezda Super Liga | 2u | 2.75 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic Championship [E1] | 3u | 3.00 | L | -3.00u |
| 31/10 | Colchester United vs Walsall League Two | 2u | 2.06 | L | -2.00u |
| 31/10 | Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn Bundesliga | 2u | 2.85 | W | +3.70u |
| 31/10 | SV Oberachern vs TSV Essingen Oberliga Baden Wuerttemberg | 3u | 3.25 | W | +6.75u |
| 31/10 | FC Fredericia vs AB Betinia Liga | 3u | 3.10 | L | -3.00u |
| 30/10 | Criciúma vs Ponte Preta Brasileirão Série B | 3u | 3.10 | W | +6.30u |
| 30/10 | USV Gnas vs SV SMB Pachern Landesliga Steiermark | 3u | 3.00 | L | -3.00u |
| 30/10 | Lech II Poznań UAM vs Energa Stomilanki Olsztyn Orlen 1 Liga Kobiet | 3u | 3.00 | L | -3.00u |
| 28/10 | Toronto vs DC United Major League Soccer | 2u | 2.58 | L | -2.00u |
Every other Under 2.5 bet is in the full track record and the monthly results.
Questions people ask
What does Under 2.5 goals mean?
The bet wins if the match has two goals or fewer. 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 all win; 2-1 and 3-0 lose.
Are BearBet's Under 2.5 tips profitable?
Over the whole record, yes: 565 bets, +93.1u, a yield of 10.4%. 2 of 10 months lost money, the worst being May 2026 at -25.6u.
What win rate do Under 2.5 tips need to break even?
At average odds of 2.50 you need to win about 40.1% of bets to break even. We have won 43.4%.
How many Under 2.5 tips do you post?
About 16 a week on average since 24 February 2026. The number varies with the fixture list: we only bet when the price is long enough.
Other strategies
Selected tips go out free on our Telegram channel. VIP members get every bet the model finds, Under 2.5 included, before kick-off. How BearBet works.